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The 2012 Doomsday Prediction is a cultural phenomenon consisting of present-day speculation that cataclysmic and apocalyptic events will occur in the year 2012. This idea has been disseminated by numerous books, internet sites and by documentaries airing on the History Channel since 2006. The forecast is based primarily on a claimed end-date of the 5,125-year Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, which is December 21, 2012, and incorporates warnings from climate experts and other environmental scientists that the Earth has reached a “tipping point” that could generate mass extinctions, as well as interpretations of assorted legends, scriptures and prophecies.

In addition, some proponents of the doomsday premise argue ancient Mayan astronomers were aware of a rare alignment of the Earth, Sun and center of the Milky Way on the December solstice in 2012. According to this belief, the alignment is tied to the precession of the equinoxes and signals a transition from one world age to another. A New Age interpretation of this transition posits that, during this time, the planet and its inhabitants may undergo a physical or spiritual transformation rather than an apocalypse.^[1]

Skeptics of the apocolyptic forecast include scholars of Mayan civilization. Those versed in the study of classical Mayan civilization dispute the apocalyptic interpretation of the Long Count calendar end-date and the precession-alignment interpretation, insisting that the date 12/21/2012 simply marks a resetting of the calendar to Baktun 13.0.0.0.0.^[2] Experts on the ancient Maya tend to see the focus on 2012 as a manifestation of Mayanism, a collection of New Age beliefs that reinterpret and potentially distort ancient Mayan culture.

Some New Age interpretations emphasize a spiritual “shift in consciousness” over physical change, with authors such as Daniel Pinchbeck arguing that materialistic attitudes, rather than the material world, are in jeopardy. Historian Richard G. Kyle notes that predictions of the imminent end of the world have a very long history, with hundreds of documented examples, some associated with religious prophecies, others with astronomical events such as comets or eclipses, and others with calendar events such as the millennium.^[3]

[edit] December 21, 2012

The significance of this date in Mayanism stems from the ending of the current baktun cycle of the Maya calendar in 2012, which many believe will create a global “consciousness shift” and the beginning of a new age. Speculation about this date can be traced to the first edition of The Maya (1966) by Michael D. Coe, in which he suggested the date of December 24, 2011, as one on which the Maya believed “Armageddon would overtake the degenerate peoples of the world and all creation.”^[4] This date became the subject of speculation by Frank Waters, who devotes two chapters to its interpretation, including discussion of an astrological chart for this date and its association with Hopi prophecies in Mexico Mystique (1975). The significance of the year 2012 (but not a specific day) was mentioned briefly by José Argüelles in The Transformative Vision (1975).^[5]

Waters’ book inspired further speculation by John Major Jenkins in the mid-1980s, including revision of the date to one corresponding with the winter solstice in 2012. Interpretations of the date became the subject of further speculation by José Argüelles in The Mayan Factor (1987), promoted at the 1987 Harmonic Convergence. It received further elaboration in the Novelty theory of Terence McKenna. The supposed prediction of an astronomical conjunction of the black hole at the center of the Milky Way galaxy with the winter solstice Sun on December 21, 2012, referred to by John Major Jenkins in Galactic Alignment as having been predicted by the ancient Maya and others, is a much-anticipated event in Mayanism. Although Jenkins suggests that ancient Maya knowledge of this event was based on observations of the “dark rift” in the Milky Way as seen from Earth, others interpret it as evidence of knowledge imparted via ancient contact with extraterrestrial intelligence. The relevance of modern “dark rift” observations to Pre-Columbian and traditional Maya beliefs is strongly debated, and many academic archaeologists have been skeptical of all theories regarding extraterrestrial contact, but it is clear that the promotion of Mayanism through interest in 2012 doomsday scenarios is contributing to the evolution of religious syncretism in contemporary Maya communities. Psychonaut author Daniel Pinchbeck popularized New Age concepts about this date, linking it to beliefs about crop circles, alien abduction, and personal revelations based on the use of entheogens and mediumship in his 2006 book 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl ^[6].

[edit] Prophecies

The History Channel in its coverage of the 2012 Doomsday Prediction cites a number of prophecies that may relate to the present day.^[7] For example, in the 1940s members of the Hopi tribe warned that of a series of global catastrophes would strike after nine omens were realized. A third world war, geologic upheaval, hotter temperatures, drought and famine would all contribute to the collapse of civilization. This prediction was integrated into an older legend and is today known as the Hopi Prophecy. Among the omens that presage the final days are supposed to be a “spider web crisscrossing the earth” and a “blue star”.^[8]

Other prophecies considered by doomsday proponents to be relevant to modern times include:

• The Book of Revelation, by John of Patmos.
• The Sibylline Books.
• The Quatrains and what the History Channel has dubbed the ‘Lost Book of Nostradamus’ (actually the Vaticinia Nostradami, a version of a misattributed collection of paintings of prophetic papal emblems from long before his time known as the Vaticinia de Summis Pontificibus).
• The Prophecy of the Popes, by Saint Malachy.
• Terrence Mckenna’s Timewave Zero interpretation of the I Ching.

Two Medieval prophets dramatized in the History Channel program 2012: End of Days are Mother Shipton (a.k.a. Ursula Southeil) and Myrddin Wyllt. Both were said to have envisioned an apocalypse during the era of modern technological society. However, the authorship of both prophecies is disputed by scholars.

In The Orion Prophecy (2001), Patrick Geryl and Gino Ratinckx allege that descendents of the utopian civilization Atlantis settled along the Nile following the end of the last major ice age. These Atlanteans survived a catastrophic flood and later encoded a warning about a 2012 apocalypse in hieroglyphs. According to Geryl and Ratinckx, this prophecy can be found inside the Sphinx, the pyramids at Giza and the zodiacs in the Greco-Roman Dendera temple. The authors cite a rare translation of the Egyptian Book of the Dead by the French mathematician Albert Slosman, as well as Slosman’s book Le Grand Cataclysme (1976), as sources.^[9]

[edit] Precession-alignment theory

In the solar system, gravity causes the sun and planets to share the same plane of orbit. In the night sky, this plane is known as the ecliptic. The twelve Zodiac constellations move along or near the ecliptic, and over time, appear to recede counterclockwise one degree every 72 years – that is, from our perspective looking up from the ground. This movement is attributed to a slight wobble in the earth’s axis as it spins. As a result, approximately every 2160 years, the constellation visible on the early morning of the spring equinox changes. This signals the end of one astrological age (currently the Age of Pisces) and the beginning of another (Age of Aquarius). Over the course of 26,000 years, the precession of the equinoxes makes one full circuit around the ecliptic.

This phenomenon underlies the principle of “galactic alignment”, a rarely occurring intersection of the earth, sun and galactic equator. The next alignment happens to coincide with the end of the Mayan Long Count calendar on the December solstice in 2012. Former software engineer John Major Jenkins is credited with the premise that the classical Mayans anticipated this conjunction and celebrated it as the harbinger of a profound spiritual transition for mankind.

New Age proponents of the Precession-alignment theory argue that, just as astrology uses the positions of stars and planets to predict the future, the Mayans plotted their calendars with the objective of preparing for significant world events.^[10]

[edit] Criticism

Most university astronomers and other academics specializing in Mayan studies reject the galactic alignment theory. There is no evidence in the archaeological record to demonstrate that the classical Mayan civilization attached any apocalyptic significance to the completion of the 13 Bak’tun, and the Long Count calendar does not end on 13.0.0.0.0.^[11] Reputable scholars such as Linda Schele and David Freidel^[12] point out that the end of the current Mayan long count is not in fact due until day 13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.0.0.0.0 from the theoretical end of the previous world in 3114 BC (an ‘end of the world’ totally unknown either to history or to archeology) – which, with each column equal to twenty times its predecessor, lies some 41,341,049,999,999,999,999,999,994,879 years in the future. Thus, the claims of Jenkins and other amateur history detectives are considered speculative at best. University of Florida astronomer Susan Milbrath, author of Star Gods of the Maya, is among those who have accused 2012 doomsday proponents of exploiting Mayan culture to advance political or personal agendas.^[13] Moreover, skeptics point out that, since the nucleus of the Milky Way cannot be identified without high-powered telescopes, the Mayans could not have been aware of its location.^[14] Critics suggest that fears about 2012 should be tempered by the fact that the alignment in question takes place over a 36-year period, corresponding to the diameter of the sun, with the most precise convergence having already occurred without incident in 1998.^[15]

[edit] Dissemination

Interest in the 2012 Doomsday Prediction has spread in recent years as a result of several programs airing on the History Channel, a groundswell of internet sites and blogs, and numerous books on the subject. George Noory, main host of Coast to Coast AM, believes something significant will happen in 2012, and in recent years it has been a common theme on the show.^[16]

Books that refer to the 2012 Doomsday Prediction include Apocalypse 2012: A Scientific Investigation Into Civilization’s End (2007) by Lawrence E. Joseph, How to Survive 2012: Tactics and Survival Places for the Coming Pole Shift (2008) by Patrick Geryl. 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl (2007) by Daniel Pinchbeck, Death from the Skies!: These Are the Ways the World Will End (2008) by Philip Plait, A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change (2008) by John Peterson, A Guide to the End of the World (2002) by Bill McGuire, The Orion Prophecy (2001) by Patrick Geryl and Gino Ratinckx, 2013 Oracle: Ancient Keys to the 2012 Awakening The Mystery of 2012: Predictions, Prophecies and Possibilities (2008) by Gregg Braden, (2006), Serpent of Light (2007) by Drunvalo Melchizedek, and The Maya End Times : A spiritual adventure to the heart of the Maya prophecies for 2012 (2008) by Patricia Mercier. A movie called 2012, directed by Roland Emmerich and starring John Cusack, is scheduled for release in 2009. It is the latest action film premised on the world ending in the early 21st century. Emmerich has experience in directing apocalyptic movies: he directed Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow.